Back in September of 2015, we posted an article posing the question: Will the Juniors Reach Rio? This, of course, referred to the top juniors who were about to enter senior competition and were eligible to qualify to the 2016 Olympic Games: Laurie Hernandez, Jazmyn Foberg, and Ragan Smith. 

Unfortunately, Foberg suffered an ankle injury. As a result, she was unable to compete at P&G Championships, and subsequently, the U.S. Olympic Trials. But both Hernandez and Smith are down in Rio--Hernandez as a member of the five-woman team, and Smith as an alternate. 

So, how did they get there? How were they able to break into the senior ranks and make their marks? Were our predictions correct on what they needed to improve? Let's take a look.

Prediction: "If history repeats itself, we can expect these juniors to add around .5-1 point to their D-score between now and (2016)."

They did! Hernandez added, on average, a whopping 1.28 points to her all-around D-score while Smith added around six tenths. These scores put them right up there with Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, and Gabby Douglas--the veterans who will contend for the all-around spots in Rio--whose D-scores have remained virtually unchanged since 2015, with the exception of Biles' Cheng. 

Hernandez's sizable improvement put her right where she needs to be, and is one of the reasons she was able to make the Olympic team, along with her stunning execution and consistency. This year, she secured herself as a top-tier, high-level all-arounder who can be counted on to compete on any event in a team final. 

Smith's upgrades were not what put her into the mix of Olympic hopefuls. Her improvements did put her around a quarter of a tenth ahead of Douglas in total all-around D-score, but her major jump came on bars, where Team USA would not use her. Beam and floor kept Smith in the conversation, even though her difficulty remained about the same on these events. 



As we know, all-around difficulty is not all that matters. In a three-up-three-count situation, it is often about whether your strengths match what Team USA needs. So we also made recommendations on what each girl needed to do between 2015 and 2016 to have a shot at making the team.

Prediction: For Hernandez, a few added tenths of difficulty across several events will go a long way

Again, Hernandez did just this. The boost in her all-around score came on three different events, with only her vault staying the same. She upped both bars and floor by about three tenths a piece, and seven tenths on beam. Improvements here and there made a big difference overall. 

Prediction: For Hernandez, an Amanar would help her seal a ticket to Rio

While this would absolutely have been true, Hernandez's upgrades across the other events proved enough to stand up against her competition. Biles and Raisman will do Amanars for the U.S., but without a third in the mix (or fourth, like in London), Hernandez having an Amanar was not necessary to beat anyone else for a spot on the team.

Prediction: For Smith, take the Kyla Ross approach, and focus on the two events you are most likely to contribute on in a team final

In this case, beam and floor would have been Smith's targets for improving her difficulty. But her D-scores on these two events remained relatively unchanged between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Hernandez ended up surpassing Smith in difficulty on beam, and her performance on that event played a large part in her making the Olympic team. The selection process could have been a lot more intriguing with consistent and solid upgrades from Smith on beam and floor.

This class of juniors that turned senior the year of the Olympics were incredible in their first year on the big stage. They handled the pressure like veterans, and proved they could hang with the best in the world, which is why we can't wait to see how they do in Rio.


Related:
U.S. Women's Rio 2016 Qualifications Line-up Confirmed