The 2016 P&G Gymnastics Championships will take place this weekend on Friday and Sunday. Championships are important steps on the road to Rio, and performances here will indicate who will be sent on to compete at Olympic Trials. Martha Karolyi and the selection committee typically only send between 12-14 gymnasts to the Trials, so the competition will be fierce.

So, who are the front runners? Podium finishers both in the all-around and individual events are usually strong contenders for Trials spots—check out our podium predictions below, and let us know your predictions!

Vault

The only two gymnasts competing for the vault championship are Simone Biles and MyKayla Skinner, and they will almost certainly finish with Biles on top. Biles is one of the best vaulters in the world—she won bronze at the World Championships last year, and silver medals in 2013 and 2014. She significantly improved her chances of winning gold after adding the Cheng as her second vault and performing it extremely well.

Apart from the podium, the more important consideration is actually who will be showing the Amanar. In addition to Biles, both Skinner and Aly Raisman have proven they can perform a decent Amanar. Maggie Nichols is also capable of the vault, but she injured herself training it a few months ago and may take it slow bringing it back, if she does at all.

The big question mark is around those gymnasts who have reportedly been training the Amanar but have not competed it in recent years. The most anticipated of these is Gabby Douglas, who performed this vault tremendously in 2012 at the Olympics. The addition of this vault would help her all-around score significantly. The other possibility is Brenna Dowell, who has also performed the vault in the past but has not done so since the 2014 American Cup.

1. Simone Biles
2. MyKayla Skinner
3. Aly Raisman

Bars

Our top podium predictions for bars are Ashton Locklear, Madison Kocian and Gabby Douglas, and they could go in any order. Kocian has the highest D-score of the three, but Locklear and Douglas are not far behind, and Locklear’s execution can put her on top. Douglas recently upgraded her routine and performed it well at Classics—check it out below:

​Video by USA Gymnastics


There’s always a possibility that a few others could sneak on to the podium depending on performance of the top three. For bars, we think Dowell and Laurie Hernandez are not far behind. Dowell is competing with the same D-score as Locklear, though not with the same execution or consistency. If she has two good days, she could challenge. Hernandez also recently upgraded, which brought her D-score to a 6.4. She notched a big number at Classics (a 15.4) and could also challenge for a spot.

1. Ashton Locklear
2. Madison Kocian
3.Gabby Douglas

Beam

Our podium predictions for beam are Simone Biles, Ragan Smith, and Alyssa Baumann Beam is a tough event to predict; most of the top beam workers in the country have struggled on connections, which can bring scores down significantly. But Biles easily holds our No. 1 spot—she has the top D-score at 6.7, and has been consistent. Behind Biles, we think it’s a toss up between Baumann and Smith. Baumann had a great performance at Classics and holds the next-highest D-score at 6.6. She has also enjoyed a lot of success in this event, and tends to hit her routines. Check out her routine from Classics below:

​Video by USA Gymnastics


Smith, although slightly lower in difficulty, is also extremely consistent. She was scoring in the 15.1-15.2 range even before adding in her Patterson dismount. Assuming she can land this successfully, we think she’ll be in the top three.

We think two gymnasts could sneak onto the podium: Raisman and Hernandez. Raisman has one of the highest potential D-scores, a 6.5, but her success is dependent on connections that she sometimes misses. Her execution also tends to be a bit lower than the other top beamers. Her highest score so far this year was a 15.1, which she scored in event finals at Pacific Rims. Hernandez has demonstrated she’s very reliable on beam. She also has a fairly high D-score (6.4) and hardly ever wobbles in major competitions. This year, she has not scored below 15.25 in the event. Depending on how things go for Baumann and Smith, Hernandez could find herself on the podium.

1. Simone Biles
2. Ragan Smith
3. Alyssa Baumann

Floor

Our podium predictions for floor are Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, and Laurie Hernandez. Biles is a no-brainer with a 6.9 D-score and incredible execution on the event. The last time she performed floor was at Pac Rims, and she scored a 16.05. The reigning Olympic champion, Raisman, is another no-brainer. Raisman has upgraded her floor since the last Olympics, and currently holds the second-highest D-score behind Simone on the U.S. team, a 6.6. She has done very well in recent competitions and scored a 15.5 at Classics.

Although Hernandez does not have one of the highest difficulty levels (her D-score is 6.0), her execution is better than a lot of other gymnasts, which is why we put her in the No. 3 spot. She did very well at Pac Rims in the team final, and scored a 14.95. She also has a new floor routine to show off at P&Gs—you can see some of the highlights from podium training below:

​Video by USA Gymnastics


There are a few other top floor workers who could sneak on to the podium. If Maggie Nichols is at full strength, she is certainly one of them. Nichols has one of the higher D-scores at 6.3 and can score into the 15.0s. Her last floor routine at the American Cup scored a 15.2, which is several tenths higher than Hernandez’s highest score. The other possibility is Brenna Dowell, who is capable of scoring close to Hernandez’s level with the same difficulty.

1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman 
3. Laurie Hernandez

The All-Around

Although we aren’t sure yet who is competing all four events, we can make some predictions. This one is quite difficult because there are really four gymnasts who are considered the top all-arounders on the U.S. team at the moment: Biles, Raisman, Douglas and Hernandez.

Hernandez’s upgrades on bars and beam have really put her up at the top, and she could easily be one of the top three. Out of the four, she and Biles are probably the most consistent gymnasts. Her falls in competitions have been minimal.

For Douglas, whether she competes the Amanar and how well she does it will be a big indicator. Performing this vault could give her the edge over Hernandez. For Raisman, as long as she is consistent on making her connections on beam, hitting bars, and landing her Amanar successfully, she should make it onto the podium.

Given this, our predictions for the all-around podium are Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas and Laurie Hernandez, but it would not be surprising if Raisman ended up in the top three.

What are your predictions for P&Gs? Let us know what you think!


Related:
START LIST: P&G Champs - Senior Women
Complete Roster: 2016 P&G Championships
D Score Rankings of the 2016 Olympic Hopefuls