#3 Michigan Vs #5 Arizona State: Breakdown & Predictions

A breakdown and predictions for one of the biggest duals of the season: #3 Michigan vs #5 Arizona State.

Dec 29, 2021 by Jon Kozak

#3 Michigan Vs #5 Arizona State: Breakdown & Predictions

#3 Michigan and #5 Arizona State will square off on January 3rd in Austin, Texas! This top 5 dual will feature a number of ranked matches and kick off wrestling in the New Year with a bang! Check out the projected lineups, a breakdown of each match, and predictions below.

Jan 4, 2022, 1:00 AM UTC

2022 Arizona State vs Michigan

Projected Lineups

125: #2 Nick Suriano/Jack Medley (Michigan) vs #5 Brandon Courtney (Arizona State)

133: #9 Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) vs #6 Michael McGee (Arizona State)

141: #4 Stevan Micic (Michigan) vs #16 Jesse Vasquez (Arizona State)

149: HM Kanen Storr (Michigan) vs #7 Kyle Parco (Arizona State)

157: #13 Will Lewan (Michigan) vs #4 Jacori Teemer (Arizona State)

165: #11 Cam Amine (Michigan) vs #9 Anthony Valencia (Arizona State)

174: #6 Logan Massa (Michigan) vs Cael Valencia/Zane Coleman (Arizona State)

184: #2 Myles Amine (Michigan) vs Josh Nummer (Arizona State)

197: #10 Patrick Brucki (Michigan) vs #9 Kordell Norfleet (Arizona State)

285: #2 Mason Parris (Michigan) vs #3 Cohlton Shultz (Arizona State)

18 of the 20 wrestlers in these lineups are ranked and there are a total of 8 ranked matchups! On top of that, there are four top 10 matchups and two top 5 matchups. This dual is sure to be exciting from start to finish - take a look below to see predictions and a breakdown of each match.

125: #2 Nick Suriano/Jack Medley (Michigan) vs #5 Brandon Courtney (Arizona State)

The return of Nick Suriano! A match against the returning NCAA runner-up isn’t necessarily what the normal person would pick for his first match back in over two years. However, Nick Suriano has never done things the predictable way. Should Suriano take the mat in Austin, the match between him and Brandon Courtney should be outstanding. Suriano’s positioning and ability to finish once he gets to a leg is incredible but Brandon Courtney’s offensive ability is equally impressive. I favor Suriano in a close decision but Brandon Courtney can absolutely win this matchup.

There’s still a chance Michigan could hold off using Suriano to allow him to ease into the college season. If that’s the case, Courtney should win a controlled decision over Jack Medley. A 2020 National Qualifier, Medley would be an All-American contender this year but isn’t quite on the level of Brandon Courtney. Medley should hold the match to a decision but Courtney is a big favorite.

Prediction: Suriano by decision - Michigan 3, Arizona State 0

Hear Brandon Courtney share his thoughts on a potential match with Nick Suriano:

Brandon Courtney Excited For Michigan Dual

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133: #9 Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) vs #6 Michael McGee (Arizona State)

Michael McGee and Dylan Ragusin have had similar starts to their seasons and are both currently riding momentum heading into this dual. McGee is coming off an upset victory over All-American Korbin Myers while Ragusin won the CKLV in his last competition. Along with that success, both wrestlers fell to lower-ranked wrestlers early in the season - McGee to HM Job Greenwood and Ragusin to #12 Anthony Madrigal.

This match should be a wild one in Austin and will likely be decided by one or two “flurries” due to the “guns blazing” style of Dylan Ragusin. Sometimes that style pays off big for Ragusin but other times it causes him to get in unnecessary danger. I give McGee a slight edge based on his experience and ability to get to his ability to score. Whatever the outcome, this one should be a lot of fun.

Prediction: McGee by decision - Michigan 3, Arizona State 3

Dylan Ragusin’s win in the finals of the CKLV over Chris Cannon

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141: #4 Stevan Micic (Michigan) vs #16 Jesse Vasquez (Arizona State)

Olympian and three-time All-American Stevan Micic is back for one last ride in a Michigan singlet. Micic, the seasoned vet, should be a huge favorite against freshman Jesse Vasquez. While Micic should get the win, it will be interesting to see how he looks up at 141 and if he is able to push for bonus points against Vasquez. I think Vasquez should be able to keep the match to a decision as Micic isn’t a prolific turner on top and Vasquez is savvy enough on his feet to keep Micic from widening the gap.

Prediction: Micic by decision - Michigan 6, Arizona State 3

149: #HM Kanen Storr (Michigan) vs #7 Kyle Parco (Arizona State)

Kyle Parco is coming off a 6th place finish at last year’s NCAA Tournament and has put together a 10-1 record this season. While Parco does have a win over All-American #9 Jonathan Millner and #17 Kaden Gfeller, he just suffered defeat at the hands of #13 Beau Bartlett last week. Parco will be looking to get back on track against a tough Kanen Storr who is coming off a knee injury from the CKLV. That injury, combined with Parco's ability to score in a variety of ways, makes Parco a considerable favorite against Storr.

Prediction: Parco by decision - Michigan 6, Arizona State 6

Parco's win over Wyoming's Jaron Jenson in the finals of the 2021 Cowboy Open:

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157: #13 Will Lewan (Michigan) vs #4 Jacori Teemer (Arizona State)

Jacori Teemer vs Will Lewan should be fantastic! The two met last year at the NCAA tournament where Teemer won 4-2 in overtime. Teemer vs Lewan is a true “clash of styles” in that Teemer thrives off counter-attacks and Lewan is cautious and calculated in his offensive attacks. Teemer will try to force Lewan into uncomfortable wrestling situations while Lewan will look to hold position and wear Teemer out in the hand fight. I favor the wrestler with more ways to score and, in this matchup, that’s Teemer.

Prediction: Teemer by decision - Michigan 6, Arizona State 9

Teemer and Lewan's match bat at the 2018 Junior World Team Trials:

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165: #11 Cam Amine (Michigan) vs #9 Anthony Valencia (Arizona State)

Cam Amine and Anthony Valencia were set to face off in the 7th/8th place match at last year’s NCAA tournament but an injury to Valencia prevented that match from going down. We get to see it in Austin and, like Teemer-Lewan, it’s a bit of a clash of styles. Valencia, fresh off making the national team for Mexico, is dynamic on his feet with his signature blast double and has picked up his bonus point production this year with bonus in 6 of his 10 wins. Cam Amine is more calculated and typical “grinds out” his wins. In fact, 5 of Amine’s 7 wins this season have been by 3 points or less. For Amine to win, he’ll have to limit Valencia’s offense in the first and win the battle on the mat. Amine is certainly capable, but at this point, Valencia may be a bit too much for the young Amine.

Prediction: Valencia by decision - Michigan 6, Arizona State 12

Watch Anthony Valencia dominate at the 2021 Cowboy Open:

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174: #6 Logan Massa (Michigan) vs Cael Valencia/Zane Coleman (Arizona State)

Logan Massa, like Myles Amine and Stevan Micic, has returned to Michigan’s lineup for one last ride. Massa wrestled his first, and only, competition of the season at the Cleveland State Open where he went 5-0 with 4 bonus point wins. Massa will be a big favorite in this dual but there is still uncertainty around who Arizona State will send out at 174.

Cael Valencia is still in redshirt for Arizona State but has put together an impressive first half of his season with wins over #13 Hayden Hastings and HM Tyler Eischens. Valencia also majored current Arizona State starter Zane Coleman at the Cowboy Open, 12-4. Regardless of who takes the mat for the Sun Devils, Massa has the potential to secure some much-needed bonus points. If it’s Valencia, I’m predicting a major. If Coleman, a tech or pin is within reach.

Prediction: Massa by major decision - Michigan 10, Arizona State 12

184: #2 Myles Amine (Michigan) vs Josh Nummer (Arizona State)

Olympic bronze medalist Myles Amine will be a big favorite against Josh Nummer on Monday night in Austin. Amine is reportedly set to compete at the Matmen Open but has yet to wrestle a folkstyle match this season. Even if he’s still shaking off the folkstyle rust, expect Amine to put up big points against Josh Nummer. The young Sun Devil has had a rough start to his freshman season and is currently 3-7. Beyond that, he has given up bonus points in 5 of his 7 losses. Amine has dynamic offense and expect him to score on his feet in a variety of ways. I expect bonus points for the Wolverines here.

Prediction: Amine by tech fall - Michigan 15, Arizona State 12

197: #10 Patrick Brucki (Michigan) vs #9 Kordell Norfleet (Arizona State)

Brucki vs Norfleet could be the third top 10 matchup of the dual and should be phenomenal. While they have never met in collegiate competition, they’ve hit numerous common opponents and have similar results. In fact, this year both Brucki and Norfleet lost a close, 2 point match to #8 Jake Woodley. Similarly, I expect this match to be decided by two points or less and will likely come down to who will win the battle on their feet. I give a slight edge to Norfleet but the margins are razor-thin.

Prediction: Norfleet by decision - Michigan 15, Arizona State 15

Norfleet's win over All-American Stephen Buchanan from last season:

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285: #2 Mason Parris (Michigan) vs #3 Cohlton Shultz (Arizona State)

Who doesn’t love a good big-man matchup!? Mason Parris vs Cohlton Shultz should be a battle and is a showdown between age-level world champions. Parris won a junior world title (in freestyle) back in 2019 while Schultz won a cadet world title in 2017 (in greco).

Mason Parris has been the second-best heavyweight in the country for the past two seasons (behind Gable Steveson) and will be the slight favorite over Schultz. Arizona State’s big man took 4th at last year’s NCAA tournament where he lost only to Tony Cassioppi twice. Parris and Schultz haven’t met in college but it’s worth mentioning Parris is 2-0 (with two pins) over the aforementioned Cassioppi. This will be a major test for Schultz and will tell us if he’s jumped a tier or if he remains a step behind the best heavyweights in the country.

Prediction: Parris by decision

Mason Parris will likely need this underhook defense against Schultz:

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Predicted Final Score: Michigan 18, Arizona State 15

So, there it is - I have an even split in matches but Michigan with the slight edge based on bonus points. If Nick Suriano doesn’t wrestle for the Wolverines, that will be a huge blow to their chances of winning and Michigan will need to win one of the 4 toss-up matches at 133, 157, 165, or 197. On Arizona State’s side of things, the Sun Devils will need to limit bonus points and win the big toss-up matches to take out the Wolverines. Whatever happens, this dual will be one of the best of the season and provide incredible wrestling from start to finish. Make sure you tune in on Monday, January 3rd at 8:00 pm (ET) so you don’t miss a move!