The 2016 Rio Olympics lead-up has been far less dramatic than many would've expected at this time last year. Martha Karolyi said she has a pretty good idea of the Rio-bound athletes in her mind, but nothing is set in stone. Karolyi told Team USA how crucial the Trials truly are.

This competition is extremely important. They need to prove themselves. They need to show that they’re able to handle the stress and their routines are very consistent.

After day one of the Trials, Simone Biles is still on top of the gymnastics universe despite lacking her strongest performance. Aly Raisman continues to bring both rock-solid routines and tremendous leadership, and Laurie Hernandez is peaking at just the right time to clinch her spot.

But two big decisions remain unclear. Up for debate is a spot that will likely go to a bars specialist—Madison Kocian or Ashton Locklear—and one that has presumably been reserved for Gabby Douglas for months.

In terms of bars ability and scoring, it truly could go either way between Kocian and Locklear. Kocian has the higher difficulty, Locklear has the higher execution, and they end up scoring about the same each time. On day one, it was a flat tie at 15.75. Kocian showed throughout P&G Championships and night one of the Trials that she's capable of doing all-around, which is important in Martha's eyes. But Locklear took an unfortunate fall off beam on night one—her only other event.

Meanwhile, Douglas is still working to prove she is back to Olympic-level form.


Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Douglas entered with a lot to prove after missing the podium at P&G Championships and finishing in the top three only on bars. A major place where she could make an impact is on vault with an Amanar, which she has been training hard in the gym, but is not ready to compete with it.

What Douglas needed most was to break into the top three in the all-around, perform a solid Amanar, or be consistent and aggressive throughout the meet to prove she can be 100 percent dependable wherever they need her.

Day one of Trials gave Douglas trouble in several areas. She didn't have her most outstanding routines on floor and bars, and closed out her meet with a devastating fall on an L turn on beam. It wasn't the Douglas everyone was hoping to see show up with that edge we've all seen in the past.

Now, Douglas is feeling more pressure than ever. She's a fierce competitor and won't go down without a fight, but the question is, without an Amanar or evidence she is consistent under pressure, where does she fit best in the Olympic picture?

If Biles, Raisman, Hernandez, and Kocian/Locklear are "locks," who is best for that last spot? The reality is with those four, the U.S. would likely win not only team gold, but two all-around medals, an individual medal on vault, an individual medal on bars, two individual medals on beam, and two individual medals on floor.

Therefore, the last spot should go to someone who can contribute an additional individual medal. If this becomes the goal, vault and bars specialists rise to the top of the list. This is the criteria by which Douglas doesn't seem to fit based on recent performances. MyKayla Skinner has the potential to accompany Biles on the vault podium with her Amanar and Cheng. Or bringing both Kocian and Locklear would provide the best chance for a one-two finish on bars.

There are countless options for teams that could bring home the team gold. Assessing where Douglas is at currently, the U.S. could win more medals without Douglas. But that may not be Karolyi and the selection committee's goal. Karolyi believes Douglas is on her way to peaking at the right time: “I am pretty confident that all of these things will go in a good direction and we can work it out,” Karolyi told USA Today Sports after night one.

So while USA's medal chances would be higher without Douglas, it is probably that her past Olympic experience, recent Worlds success, and progress thus far will be enough to secure her spot.


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